IDC still believes Windows Phone will become the No. 2 platform

[Master Devwi]

IDC is still singing the same tune, if at a slightly different pitch. When the research firm first announced that Windows Phone would become the second most popular platform by 2015, people scoffed. And with Windows Phone’s market share still relatively small, the possibility seemed less likely. IDC, however, still believes that Windows Phone can do it, albeit with a smaller lead on iOS.

The firm’s initial report pegged Android’s 2015 market share at 45.4%, followed by Windows Phone at 20.9%, iOS at 15.3%, and BlackBerry at 13.7%. In the twelve months since then, IDC has revised its estimates to 52.9%, 19.2%, and 19.0%, respectively, with BlackBerry sitting at 5.9%--right around Windows Phone’s current market share.

Windows Phone will have to quadruple its market share in order to meet these expectations, but it’s certainly plausible. And with nearly all of Microsoft’s products and services coming together under a unified Meto-style user interface this fall, a renewed interest in Windows Phone is quite possible as well. Do you think Windows Phone will be able to meet--or even exceed--IDC's prediction?

[IDC]

[CrowdAds]

[saratoga]

heh, at least they're not predicted RIM and Apple fighting over 3rd/4th place anymore.

[Jeven]

is this the same IDC who predicted a 20% Windows Phone share in 2012?

Not even close - Bada outsells Windows Phones. WP is maybe the sixth or seventh ecosystem currently.

[diechipmunk]

IMHO I think it's very possible, but more likely that iOS will remain number 1, too many cool aid drinkers out there have invested heavily in the Apple ecosystem to change platforms. Android and Windows could be fighting for number the 2 spot.

I think one lesson we learned from the success of the Kindle Fire is that most people want supported devices, from a trusted provider. Android is great, but Android hardware makers pretty much release a phone\tablet into the wild and focus on the next unit, the. We're lucky if we get OS updates for the next year, never mind 3 or 4 years down the road.

If MS does a good job of support, and the new integrated Windows 8 universe lives up to the hype, they should take a big market share.

Any way, it will be interesting to watch the trend unfold.

[nathan]

Originally Posted by diechipmunk

IMHO I think it's very possible, but more likely that iOS will remain number 1, too many cool aid drinkers out there have invested heavily in the Apple ecosystem to change platforms.

Are you sure of that.

http://www.androidauthority.com/veri...-iphone-94372/

Also if you didn't know Android currently holds 60% of the world smartphone market share and Samsung is the largest smartphone manufacturer selling 45 million smartphone last quarter compared to 33 million iphones sold. I thought this is old news but some might not know.

I think having more options is what really starting to drive sells. Limited platforms are loosing market share or will soon be loosing market share. Also Android tells a story or has a purpose, they give you more ability and more options than iOS, while the other OS's are just "we have a touchscreen too" (Windows phone, blackberry and a bunch of not really well known platforms). Pretty much everyone I know don't really know what wp7 is. Even people who recently shopped around for a phone never herd of wp7 or when they saw it at the store their reaction was "meh".

[Kizune]

The Nokia Lumia got rank #1 and #2 immediately after its release.

Also, check this out: http://www.amazon.com/gp/top-rated/w...FMAG26FV3EAG0S
Rank 1, 2, 3, 5, 7 and 8 are Windows Phones.

(Source)

Obviously, Windows Phone is not that bad - people just underestimate it.

[saratoga]

Originally Posted by diechipmunk

IMHO I think it's very possible, but more likely that iOS will remain number 1, too many cool aid drinkers out there have invested heavily in the Apple ecosystem to change platforms. Android and Windows could be fighting for number the 2 spot.

As noted in the first post, iOS is no where near first place, so its not going to "remain" there.

Originally Posted by diechipmunk

I think one lesson we learned from the success of the Kindle Fire is that most people want supported devices, from a trusted provider. Android is great, but Android hardware makers pretty much release a phone\tablet into the wild and focus on the next unit, the. We're lucky if we get OS updates for the next year, never mind 3 or 4 years down the road.

Couple things, the kindle fire is not a phone, and its sales have been pretty mediocre to disappointing. So I don't think you're drawing the right lessons from the Fire.

I think the right lessons to draw from the fire would be:

1) Phones are not Tablets
2) That people want cheap tablets for media consumption
3) If the user experience is weak like the Fire, most people will pay a lot more for something better like an ipad.

[saratoga]

Originally Posted by Kizune

Obviously, Windows Phone is not that bad - people just underestimate it.

Odd choice of a reply in a thread about IDC consistently overestimating Windows Phone

IMO most people have a generally accurate perception of WP7. A unique platform with very strong backing, but equally weak sales, and an uncertain future.

[nathan]

That always been the response to show amazon chart to show Windows phones are selling but I'm pretty sure those results are heavily bias because of some factor (probably categorical error or misinterpretation) and Nokia probably knows it's bias. If you look at actual sales Windows phones are going down despite the Microsoft/Nokia Lumina push. According to Comescore, in the U.S.,Windows phone went down from 5% to 3% from 2011 to 2012 and that's not just WP7 but all windows phones.

http://www.comscore.com/Press_Events...r_Market_Share

Additionally word from the grape vine is that wireless providers are very disapointed with the Lumia series and even urging Nokia to discontinue it.

http://www.electronista.com/articles...in.lumia.line/

There is also the fact many manufactures like LG are discontinuing there Window line phones as they sell no where near as well as Android.

http://www.gsmarena.com/lg_has_no_fu...-news-4182.php

i'm sorry but Windows 8 phone needs to be drastically different from wp7 if they want to stay in the phone game (aka, be less like iOS).

[Kizune]

Originally Posted by saratoga

Odd choice of a reply in a thread about IDC consistently overestimating Windows Phone

My post was a reply to nathan's post, specifically to this statement:

Also Android tells a story or has a purpose, they give you more ability and more options than iOS, while the other OS's are just "we have a touchscreen too" (Windows phone, blackberry and a bunch of not really well known platforms). Pretty much everyone I know don't really know what wp7 is. Even people who recently shopped around for a phone never herd of wp7 or when they saw it at the store their reaction was "meh".

[aimran]

Windows Phone sales will depend on how consumers react to Windows 8. If Windows 8 is a hit, Windows Phone will likely take off and may very well beat iOS.

BTW, the reason Windows Phone marketshare went down is because Comescore merges Windows Mobile with Windows Phone. Also that Comescore was before the Lumia 900 was released.

[Marvin the Martian]

If MS wants to sell more Windows phones, maybe they should include white earbuds and Beats audio....lol

[aimran]

Originally Posted by Marvin the Martian

If MS wants to sell more Windows phones, maybe they should include white earbuds and Beats audio....lol

It worked for HTC. I know several friends who bought HTC phones just because they have Beats audio. They all think they're audiophile now.

[The DarkSide]

I say go with the Digizoid ZO stuff - it'll kick beats audio's azz!!!

[Kizune]

Originally Posted by aimran

It worked for HTC. I know several friends who bought HTC phones just because they have Beats audio. They all think they're audiophile now.

Haha, same here.

[El C]

Originally Posted by aimran

It worked for HTC. I know several friends who bought HTC phones just because they have Beats audio. They all think they're audiophile now.

Yeah... whenever I see those commercials that go "with Beats audio, what's not to love?" I cringe.

[diechipmunk]

Kindle Fire sales have dropped off dramatically, but the initial surge in sales last Christmas outpaced everything else. Of course, it's not a phone, but I still think it proves that most people prefer a device supported by a company who's interest starts and ends with device sales. If the Fire 2 is a full featured tablet, I think sales will skyrocket again.

if you didn't know Android currently holds 60% of the world smartphone market share

Is that new sales, or current users? It's still higher than I realized, but I still see more people carrying iPhones around the office than any other platform - it is the officially supported phone here, of course.

Anyway, I'm looking forward to seeing a Windows 8 phone. Competition is good.

[Jeven]

...but probably not from Nokia, they'll likely be bust before long

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...ch-losses.html

I'm not sure how they can survive this - like RIM they're worth nothing at all.
Who is about to start buying Nokia phones?

Originally Posted by Marvin the Martian

If MS wants to sell more Windows phones, maybe they should include white earbuds and Beats audio....lol

I get free monster iems with my lumia 710 http://www.nokiamonsteroffer.co.uk/ have to wait another 2 weeks still.

plus a free 6 month Zune pass and £20 Windows apps free.

[saratoga]

Originally Posted by diechipmunk

Kindle Fire sales have dropped off dramatically, but the initial surge in sales last Christmas outpaced everything else.

No it didn't. It got crushed by the iPad. If you mean it outpaced every other tablet in the small portion of the market occupied by Android . . . it also didn't do that since Amazon and Samsung basically tied over Christmas. The Fire had a lot of media hype but didn't actually do all that well in the market because it was a pretty weak product.

Again, you're really misunderstanding the lesion of the Fire. Its that people want a cheap tablet, but they want a quality tablet more. The Fire had a crappy UI and really sluggish performance. It sold well based on its price, but most people still preferred to spend more for something better, and they did just that.

[diechipmunk]

Originally Posted by saratoga

No it didn't. It got crushed by the iPad. ...
Again, you're really misunderstanding the lesion of the Fire. Its that people want a cheap tablet, but they want a quality tablet more.

I recalled many news blurbs about the spectacular Kindle Fire sales numbers, however, reading now I see you are right. There was an initial surge, low price, trusted provider etc.

My wife got an iPad two from work. It kind of sucks. It's an expensive, single user device, that does things the way Apple things you should do them, rather than how you want, but it works, it's well made and we can get support for it if we need it. We get all the OS upgrades. Things are different with my Android phone. Sure I have way more control, but it was still shiny and new and already HTC and Verizon had moved on to selling the next latest and greatest. I'm on my own for support, I'm no longer getting upgrades and every phone has a custom UI over Android. Sure I could root it, but I shouldn't have to.

I still believe that a quality tablet or phone with standard, supported, OS would have an edge. Will Windows 8 phone (or tablet) be that? I don't know, but I'm interested is seeing how it does. I'd still pick another Android phone over an iPhone, but I've held off upgrading until I see Windows 8 does.