Windows Phone Sales Are "Catastrophic"

[JxK]

http://www.businessinsider.com/micro...analyst-2011-5

Assuming the information is accurate of course, what does the future look like for windows 7 phones? It's still a new platform, but Microsoft has lost the image as an innovator. Their profit margin remains huge, over $5 billion per year. But that's only because so many computers continue running windows, and thus use microsoft office by default.

So, question is, will Microsoft be able to overcome it's image as a company past its prime, or will this venture joint all it's other failed attempts at branching out?

[CrowdAds]

[Marvin the Martian]

I think it's too early yet to tell.....but I don't foresee them overtaking Android or iOS anytime soon.

[WalkGood]

Originally Posted by JxK

... So, question is, will Microsoft be able to overcome it's image as a company past its prime

I would bet yes ...

Originally Posted by JxK

or will this venture joint all it's other failed attempts at branching out?

I agree with marvin, too early to tell but I bet against it

[The DarkSide]

Damn, they better pull this up out of the gutter,...I plan on my next phone being a WP7 device. If they improve the OS enough I think they'll have a fighting chance. Will it be an iOS killer? Maybe, if they keep improvements coming. Will it stifle the growth of Android? Hell no!!! But, so far, I'm personally not a huge fan of Android. WP7 It will be for me.

[steinburger1109]

I don't think that it will overtake Andriod or iOS. But I do think it will sell enough to justify its place for the short term, and in the long term, who knows?

[The DarkSide]

True, as only time will tell.

[medion]

Keep in mind how poor Android's sales were prior to the Motorola Droid (hint, utter crap). Granted, there were fewer models with T-Mobile being the primary carrier. However, people generally don't run out to cancel their family plan to get a new phone. The majority update when it's time. So, expecting monumental sales in the first 6-9 months of a product is a bit premature.

Windows phone is also running on predominantly dated hardware. The HTC Trophy, which just came out (May 2011) is running the exact same guts at the Toshiba TG-01, a phone released in July 2009. MS's "non-fragmented" approach means support for a lesser range of hardware, even within the same chip family. They are two generations behind current Android hardware, with an immature (but still evolving) OS.

I think that by this time next year, MS's market share will be about the same, but more WP7 and less Windows Mobile 6.x. The saddest thing about their current situation is that it's been revealed that MS is currently making more money off Android (courtesy of their licensing deal with HTC) than they are off WP7.

[slitz]

I always thought the sales of a particular platform is due to the third party support; here it's quite strong on Android while it's lower on WP7.

I like Microsoft's current approach to fragmentation as it will mean software will be coded to work universally but also better, for example a badly coded game can get by because it relies on a stronger processor. A good piece of software should be able to push the hardware to its limit rather than relying on newer hardware to piggy back off because of some code that relies on more processing power.

[Strider_Aus]

They will come through. Things to provide a turbo-shot to WP7 in next 12m
2011 - Mango Update. HUGE.
2011 - Nokia hit global market with first WP7 device.
2012 - GEN2 WP7 handsets with dual-camera
2012 - Nokia Mass WP7 volumes and multiple handsets across non-US markets.
2012 - Delivery of Nokia WP7 services (Nokia Mapping, Nokia Nav etc).
2012 - Windows 8 Mass launch - On Desktop, Tablet and Handset - WP8.
2012 - Skype integration to WP8 allowing low value call plan and data usage for handset-handset call savings.

MS global numbers outside US aren't too bad. Verizon now have handset(s), Critical good reviews will move to increased sales as these events land and turn up the heat on Apple. Android will fall away too,

Looking good!

[epithetless]

Everything else you wrote looks pretty solid, but how do you reckon this:

Originally Posted by Strider_Aus

Android will fall away too

?

[Strider_Aus]

Because MS have to take share away from someone to grow - and I think they will do so at the cost of Android first, before significantly changing current Apple iFruit owners

I also feel there is a backlash coming to the handset / versions / carrier / update fragmentation that comes with Android to some degree...

[weedalin]

Originally Posted by Strider_Aus

They will come through. Things to provide a turbo-shot to WP7 in next 12m
2011 - Mango Update. HUGE.
2011 - Nokia hit global market with first WP7 device.
2012 - GEN2 WP7 handsets with dual-camera
2012 - Nokia Mass WP7 volumes and multiple handsets across non-US markets.
2012 - Delivery of Nokia WP7 services (Nokia Mapping, Nokia Nav etc).
2012 - Windows 8 Mass launch - On Desktop, Tablet and Handset - WP8.
2012 - Skype integration to WP8 allowing low value call plan and data usage for handset-handset call savings.

MS global numbers outside US aren't too bad. Verizon now have handset(s), Critical good reviews will move to increased sales as these events land and turn up the heat on Apple. Android will fall away too,

Looking good!

I counter with this. http://windowsphonesecrets.com/2011/...one-vs-iphone/
I've posted this link before, but I think it's especially telling. WP7 is just piddling forward at a slip-shod pace. In this case, you shouldn't be talking about future developments in years--you should be talking about them in terms of months.

The Mango update, for all that it's touted, is only a catch-up update that should have been released earlier this year, not about the time when iOS 5 is about to come out.

Originally Posted by Strider_Aus

Because MS have to take share away from someone to grow - and I think they will do so at the cost of Android first, before significantly changing current Apple iFruit owners

That's a fallacious assumption for this reason: the smart phone market is growing. I don't believe for a second that WP7 will present a strong enough of a draw for people to choose it over Android/iOS.

The "backlash" won't happen. If it would have happened, it would have happened already. Android's fragmentation has been evident for a long time now.

[Strider_Aus]

Originally Posted by weedalin

I counter with this. http://windowsphonesecrets.com/2011/...one-vs-iphone/
I've posted this link before, but I think it's especially telling. WP7 is just piddling forward at a slip-shod pace. In this case, you shouldn't be talking about future developments in years--you should be talking about them in terms of months.

MS have a development roadmap of >2 years as I understand it for WP. They are in for the long haul, and they will go from a proudct launch to a major OS release (Mango) in <12m, that's on-par or better than their competition.

Originally Posted by weedalin

The Mango update, for all that it's touted, is only a catch-up update that should have been released earlier this year, not about the time when iOS 5 is about to come out.

Ummm. No. Mango is a major overhaul, and quantity and quality of new features/enhancements rivals at a minimum an OS +1 version of it's competitors. Don't forget the new API's and API access Mango supports, expanded Live Tile and push notification for DEV's, enhanced (truer) multi-tasking etc.

I readilly agree in many areas they are still playing catch-up with their release version to the likes of iOS and Android, however the cohesiveness and integration of features and capabilities for me is years ahead of iOS. Just look at Apples last update release, as they began playing "me too" to MS WP7 initiatives from V1 release.

Originally Posted by weedalin

That's a fallacious assumption for this reason: the smart phone market is growing. I don't believe for a second that WP7 will present a strong enough of a draw for people to choose it over Android/iOS.

The "backlash" won't happen. If it would have happened, it would have happened already. Android's fragmentation has been evident for a long time now.

Yep. The market is definately growing. However at the premium end of the market - and in reality that's where most of the competition is (iFruit, Android new handsets etc), a WP7 sale will either be someone's first smartphone purchase at the expense of other competitors or it will be a switch to WP7 and a loss of prior share to iOS, Android, etc.

The impetus of Nokia coming to market will support MS in both of these areas. 1. Don't underestimate the pull Nokia has (brand loyalty) outside the US. 2. They will be able to be far more flexible on specs and price points in the market due to their exlusive MS partnership. I fully expect to see Nokia grab a significant portion of the smartphone entry segment of the market (low price point) with MS support to produce a lower cost WP7 handset. And that will sell bucketloads in Asia and Europe.

I stand by 2012 being the mak or break year for MS and WP7. All we need now is for MS to discover that they CAN do consumer marketing and throw a bucketload of cash at pushing WP7 to the masses.

Time will tell

[Confispect]

Interesting.

[saratoga]

Originally Posted by Strider_Aus

Don't underestimate the pull Nokia has (brand loyalty) outside the US. 2. They will be able to be far more flexible on specs and price points in the market due to their exlusive MS partnership. I fully expect to see Nokia grab a significant portion of the smartphone entry segment of the market (low price point) with MS support to produce a lower cost WP7 handset. And that will sell bucketloads in Asia and Europe.

Even with the relaxed hardware requirements in Mango, its hard to imagine WP7 doing much in the low price point segment of the market. They've squarely targeted their minimum spec at the high end part of the market, particularly outside of the US, and Moore's law won't come to the rescue in time for 2012. Going to be hard to sell low end phones when the slowest CPU grade you support is faster then the current generation iPhone.

They might have a better shot in NA where phones are more heavily subsidized and low end smart phones are more likely to be capable of running WP7, but Nokia is a nobody in the US, and the carriers don't seem to care much about WP7. They've really shot themselves in the foot by aiming for the highend only with their software expecting to grow into the mid and low end over the next couple years, and then partnering with a hardware vendor that competes at the lowend.

[weedalin]

Originally Posted by Strider_Aus

MS have a development roadmap of >2 years as I understand it for WP. They are in for the long haul, and they will go from a proudct launch to a major OS release (Mango) in <12m, that's on-par or better than their competition.

Consumers won't take that bullcrap. They have 2 year contracts; do you really think they're going to accept "Oh, it'll get better in >2 years, the development cycle hasn't started yet" when there's clear evidence that the competition has released faster not only bug fixes, but major releases as well?

You also completely misinterpreted Thurrott; he was talking about the bug fixes, stuff that should be fixed a couple of months, if not weeks. Microsoft has completely failed in that regards. And don't even get me into that fiasco with the failed OTA updates back in Winter. Oh God, what a horrible publicity stunt.

Originally Posted by Strider_Aus

Ummm. No. Mango is a major overhaul, and quantity and quality of new features/enhancements rivals at a minimum an OS +1 version of it's competitors. Don't forget the new API's and API access Mango supports, expanded Live Tile and push notification for DEV's, enhanced (truer) multi-tasking etc.

I readilly agree in many areas they are still playing catch-up with their release version to the likes of iOS and Android, however the cohesiveness and integration of features and capabilities for me is years ahead of iOS. Just look at Apples last update release, as they began playing "me too" to MS WP7 initiatives from V1 release.

Push notifications are nothing new. Multitasking isn't either. And what the heck is "truer" multitasking supposed to mean?
Live Tiles, ok. They weren't that practical of a feature in the first place; I don't see how any of this brings WP7 past any of the current OS's. API's should constantly be being added; no surprise there.

And the "Apple's playing catch-up now too" argument is nonsensical. Apple is in a position right now to play catch up if they feel like it--Microsoft isn't. If Microsoft doesn't get its rear in gear, WP7 will lose.

And cohesiveness/integration? iCloud is the best in-class cloud solution right now; WP7 has nothing comparable. I'd like to know exactly which features/capabilities you seem to think are more cohesive and integrated.

Originally Posted by Strider_Aus

Yep. The market is definately growing. However at the premium end of the market - and in reality that's where most of the competition is (iFruit, Android new handsets etc), a WP7 sale will either be someone's first smartphone purchase at the expense of other competitors or it will be a switch to WP7 and a loss of prior share to iOS, Android, etc.

You still haven't addressed the point I was making, about Android not being as susceptible to stolen sales as you think.

Originally Posted by Strider_Aus

The impetus of Nokia coming to market will support MS in both of these areas. 1. Don't underestimate the pull Nokia has (brand loyalty) outside the US. 2. They will be able to be far more flexible on specs and price points in the market due to their exlusive MS partnership. I fully expect to see Nokia grab a significant portion of the smartphone entry segment of the market (low price point) with MS support to produce a lower cost WP7 handset. And that will sell bucketloads in Asia and Europe.

If Apple is indeed releasing a smaller price point, cheaper version of the iPhone 4 in September, and Nokia doesn't get their stuff through the distribution channels by then, WP7 will lose on that front too. Android has already had a huge head-start on both iOS and WP7 in the low-end market.

Additionally, Apple's lack of a low-end option hasn't stopped them from completely crushing everyone in the profit margin game.

I would love to see Microsoft succeed, but if it keeps making mistakes like this, then they will fail. And they'll fail hard.

[saratoga]

Originally Posted by weedalin

Push notifications are nothing new. Multitasking isn't either. And what the heck is "truer" multitasking supposed to mean?

Its iOS style multitasking. You can have threads running for somethings like audio, and MS apps can do anything but you can't really have two different user processes open doing things like you can on Android. That will be a subsequent upgrade further down the line.

[Strider_Aus]

weedalin,

Happy to continue the discussion, not sure if you however are looking for argument?

* My comment on the development roadmap MS have was raised as an example of the fact that MS are not about to, or have any chance of abandoning WP7 in the short term. As far as year 1 has been, aside from their 200% focus on Developers, every other sense of year 1 has been "soft launch". I don't agree with that, and sit with the majority that want them to Consumer market this product and actually SELL it!

* I didn't misinterpret any of PT's article. You will actually find my comments on his Blog on this and other posts (or my blog) about the absolute disaster/fiasco that was the NoDo update. If you care to check I blogged extensively on this (even here in great detail). I challenged you on the "major release" cycle and stand by my comment that MS are on par or better than their rivals IF they deliver one major release per year.

* As far as minor releases go (bug fixes etc, small feature improvements etc" yes, MS could have managed 2011 far better (see above point) - however many of the initial feature rollouts to iOS V1.x amounted to tweaks and improvements as a new platform, like nothing seen before - vs. MS launching into a mature smartphone market with most of these things being a long-established "feature" of a premium smartphone that consequently was a customer expectation of the V1 MS WP7 product.

It's obvious MS elected to release a V1.0 with some key customer expected features (custom ringtones, cut and paste etc) because commercially - it was better to go to market and soft launch and get a product out there and try and get developers onto it than lose even more ground, share, relevance than they had with WinMO 6.5 by having no alternative at all.

It's commerically sensible when viewed in the context of a 3-5 yr plan. It doesn't however stop me from diagreeing, expecting more from MS and challenging why the heck they haven't hard launched and thrown Consumer Marketing mega-$$$ at the platform. However with Nokia, Mango and Win8 coming - this is where I think they WILL be in 2012.

* I can link too

1. Difference in approach to their OS: http://www.winphone7.info/2011/06/ma...-ios-features/

2. iOS 5 announcements ....geez some of these look familiar: http://www.winrumors.com/microsoft-f...hone-features/

* Time will tell over where MS might grow share (its as close to the bottom as something can be without being non-exsitant! lol). However my main point is that Android is more susceptible to losing share to WP7 than iOS - but agree, we shall see.

I Agree wholeheartedly with your last line - and yes, I think today, Apple briefly overtook Exxon as the largest market-capitalised company in the known Universe...if they could just be a little less damn smug about it!

[weedalin]

Originally Posted by saratoga

Its iOS style multitasking. You can have threads running for somethings like audio, and MS apps can do anything but you can't really have two different user processes open doing things like you can on Android. That will be a subsequent upgrade further down the line.

Then that's not anything new either. Still catch-up. I know how it looks aesthetically, but as much as tries to emulate webOS, it won't come even close.

Originally Posted by Strider_Aus

I didn't misinterpret any of PT's article. You will actually find my comments on his Blog on this and other posts (or my blog) about the absolute disaster/fiasco that was the NoDo update. If you care to check I blogged extensively on this (even here in great detail). I challenged you on the "major release" cycle and stand by my comment that MS are on par or better than their rivals IF they deliver one major release per year.

Fair enough. But I will be relentless and say that Microsoft's performance regarding the minor bug fixes and whatnot was last in-class. Combine that with NoDo, and it becomes a poor start for WP7.

My issues with Mango are that it's mostly a catch-up update (you haven't refuted me on that point), and that it's coming out at the wrong time--it should have come out earlier; competing with the release of iOS 5 won't do any good for it.

And to be honest, iOS borrowed a majority of the bigger features (better notifications, iCloud, etc.) from webOS and Android as opposed to WP7. iMessage was inspired by BBM rather than WP7.

I also have issues with you counting on Windows 8 as if that'll be a sure-fire solution to some of WP7's problems too; as far as I know, next to no actual details have been divulged regarding the actual nature of Windows 8 and how it will interact with the Microsoft ecosystem.

Originally Posted by Strider_Aus

* As far as minor releases go (bug fixes etc, small feature improvements etc" yes, MS could have managed 2011 far better (see above point) - however many of the initial feature rollouts to iOS V1.x amounted to tweaks and improvements as a new platform, like nothing seen before - vs. MS launching into a mature smartphone market with most of these things being a long-established "feature" of a premium smartphone that consequently was a customer expectation of the V1 MS WP7 product.

That isn't an excuse for such a poorly-timed development cycle and sluggish bug fix releases.

[Strider_Aus]

2012 will definately be a great and interesting year one way or another!