Windows Phone Sales Are "Catastrophic"

[Confispect]

[CrowdAds]

[weedalin]

Originally Posted by steinburger1109

I don't have the time to respond to it all, but this:



Is probably true. And I'm a dipshit for not thinking about that before I started yappin'. For that reason, I'm removing what I said. Thanks for understanding, even if you don't. I'll put it back up if I find out it's not of coincidence to him. Weedalin, I'd very much appreciate if you could remove it from your quote, as well.

Done. Stroke-through my relevant response to eliminate the confusion.

[saratoga]

Originally Posted by medion

When you start behind, you have to play catch up, Weed, no way around that. The trick to playing catch up while still drawing interest from consumers is to offer something that the other platforms don't. While WP7 is still doing this catch up, it still offers a lot that Android/iOS don't, such as (but not limited to);

-multiple manufacturers and device configurations while still being consistent across devices

You say that like its a good thing, but really its just another way of saying that the platform is basically locked into the highend part of the market and on a limited number of devices. Of course this hasn't hurt Apple (too much anyway), but they got into the market first and locked up most of it. In effect being locked into iPhone 4 style hardware means its very difficult for WP7 to gain traction since its stuck competing with a more mature platform and on Apple's terms.

Originally Posted by medion

I'm truly baffled as to why it's still seeing such lousy market penetration.

They launched way too late and aimed at a segment of the market that was literally impossible for them to get traction in. There was no chance of WP7 competing against iOS in the 2010-2012 time frame. None. They didn't have the hardware, they didn't have applications, they didn't have the core OS features ready to go and they didn't have carrier support in place to stand up to Apple. And thats all MS will sell phone software to do. They don't even provide binary compatibility with mid to low end ARM hardware. If you're a vendor that doesn't want to launch a suicidal attack on the iPhone, MS will not sell you software. You literally cannot build a WP7 device aimed at a market segment Apple does not dominate no matter how hard you try. MS will not allow you to differentiate a product from the competition, and so unsurprisingly few people give them notice.

Compare that to Android, which has had the most success devouring RIM and Nokia's markets by producing phones that are in different hardware and price classes. And if you look at Android and Apple phone sales, they're largely uncorrelated. The big boost when a new iPhone comes out barely hurts Android since they compete in so many other markets that Apple does not. WP7 does not do this. To get a WP7 sale, MS forces its partners to try and out-iphone Apple, and thats not likely to work.

[medion]

Originally Posted by saratoga

You say that like its a good thing, but really its just another way of saying that the platform is basically locked into the highend part of the market and on a limited number of devices. Of course this hasn't hurt Apple (too much anyway), but they got into the market first and locked up most of it. In effect being locked into iPhone 4 style hardware means its very difficult for WP7 to gain traction since its stuck competing with a more mature platform and on Apple's terms.

It is a good thing. With iOS, you get one device. With Android, you get MANY devices with no consistency. Pick your poison. WP7 is a compromise where you get multiple devices, but with a consistent experience across them. It's not "better" than iOS or Android, but yet another option. Clearly you and I are in the same boat in that we prefer the Android experience of the current big three. However, that doesn't mean that WP7 as an option is "bad," but merely another option.

And yes, being another option is a positive in their favor. Now, if only MS would develop on current generation hardware. Mango's hardware will release around the same time as the iPhone 5, but have specs on par with the iPhone 4.

[saratoga]

Originally Posted by medion

It is a good thing. With iOS, you get one device. With Android, you get MANY devices with no consistency.

I'm curious in what sense you think thats a good thing? To someone buying a one specific phone, what does "consistency" mean, and why is it a selling point?

Originally Posted by medion

Pick your poison. WP7 is a compromise where you get multiple devices, but with a consistent experience across them. It's not "better" than iOS or Android, but yet another option. Clearly you and I are in the same boat in that we prefer the Android experience of the current big three. However, that doesn't mean that WP7 as an option is "bad," but merely another option.

I don't mean that it makes WP7 "bad" as a platform, I just mean that it makes it hard for the platform to succeed commercially because it prevents manufacturers from differentiating their products from the iPhone. Essentially MS says that the only way they can do that is by shipping WP7, but they're still locked into essentially trying to mimic Apple's notion of what a smartphone should be (high end, expensive slate style phone).

In contrast, my assertion is that Android has been so successful because they haven't tried to mimic the iPhone, but rather have generated an enormous number of different devices that are aimed at more specific niches (e.g. low cost phones, high end slate style phone, blackberry style phones, etc).

You've suggested that theres a tradeoff here, but I don't really see it. The only advantage I really see for "consistency" is that it makes development cheaper for MS and Apple since they don't have to support multiple processor families, screen sizes, etc. But I don't see why I should care if a design choice saves MS having to hire a couple extra programmers or to license a few more drivers. Its not like they pass the savings on to me . . .

[medion]

Originally Posted by saratoga

I'm curious in what sense you think thats a good thing? To someone buying a one specific phone, what does "consistency" mean, and why is it a selling point?

Because few people buy a smartphone and keep it for 10 years. I have an HTC phone with HTC Sense. If I'm Joe Consumer, I'm in for a shock if I buy a non-HTC phone as my next Android device, because the UX is so different. However, if I upgrade from a Samsung Focus to an HTC Trophy, the UX is the same. There's consistency. I don't have to re-learn the device.

As for the rest of your post, I'm sorry, but you are wrong. Not every WP7-based device is an i-clone. There are phones with differing screen sizes, slate phones, phones with horizontal and even vertical slide out keyboards, and even a phone with a slide-out speaker. In fact, from the WP7 website, of the 8 phones displayed, only two of them could be considered straight iPhone competitors (and they have 3.8" and 4" screens). The rest either have a large screen or a different form factor.

Of course, there are downsides to this approach. As we've seen from their updates thus far, it's nowhere near as seamless as Apple. (Although, how much of this is on the carriers?) Also, as I've mentioned many times, MS is so dead-set on delivering a stable platform that their long development cycle causes them to lock their OS into a dated hardware platform by the time it's released. WP7-based devices launching at the end of 2010 were using hardware that had been available on smartphones for near 18 months. Mango is launching on hardware that will be about 1-year old when these phones come out. In fact, MS will be selling the single-core Chassis-2 well into 2012 against quad-core phones.

But, that doesn't change the fact that MS's approach is different enough from both Apple and Google to offer it's own inherent advantages and disadvantages. Just because the advantages don't appeal to you or me doesn't mean they aren't advantages for someone.

EDIT: I mistook your comparison to Apple as meaning the form factor of the phone. Maybe that was part of it, but there's obviously more to address. You mention form factor (blackberry style) but also cost. As MS delivers updates, more phones will be sold using both chassis 1 and chassis 2. So, chassis 1 phones will become the low-end. The problem here is that chassis 2 is mid-range TODAY, and will be low-to-mid before chassis 3 ever sees the light of day. If anything, WP7 is drifting towards the low end, and not the high. Yes, you are correct in that Android covers a larger number of markets in this regard. WP7 is meant to strike somewhere between iOS and WP7. It does that, and it will get better. Ms just needs to do a better job of supporting other chipsets.

[saratoga]

Originally Posted by medion

Because few people buy a smartphone and keep it for 10 years. I have an HTC phone with HTC Sense. If I'm Joe Consumer, I'm in for a shock if I buy a non-HTC phone as my next Android device, because the UX is so different.

I kind of doubt thats a factor given that WP7 hasn't even been out for 2 years at this point, and most people don't buy their current phone in order to setup the purchase of their future phone.

Originally Posted by medion

As for the rest of your post, I'm sorry, but you are wrong. Not every WP7-based device is an i-clone. There are phones with differing screen sizes, slate phones, phones with horizontal and even vertical slide out keyboards, and even a phone with a slide-out speaker.

Heh looking at that page theres only one WP7 device for Verizon and its a slate. Same for sprint. But yeah, I guess if you're that couple percent of smartphone users who happen to be on AT&T and not already using an iPhone, you're in luck because they have two form factors! Big slate and small slide out phone.

Originally Posted by medion

But, that doesn't change the fact that MS's approach is different enough from both Apple and Google to offer it's own inherent advantages and disadvantages. Just because the advantages don't appeal to you or me doesn't mean they aren't advantages for someone.

Could you name some advantages that you think appeal to any significant fraction of people? Note that I'm not interested in what appeals to you or to I, but rather advantages that enable the WP7 platform to sell in larger volumes.

So far you've just suggested "makes it easier to buy your next phone" which is not really all that exciting an advantage. Actually I'm not even sure making your think about a replacement before you get out of the store is even an advantage

Originally Posted by medion

EDIT: I mistook your comparison to Apple as meaning the form factor of the phone. Maybe that was part of it, but there's obviously more to address. You mention form factor (blackberry style) but also cost.

Yes the fact that internally every WP7 device is required to have virtually identical hardware that costs more to make then a lot of what Apple sells is a factor. It certainly makes it harder get carriers to push the hardware when it costs them quite a lot to do so.

Originally Posted by medion

As MS delivers updates, more phones will be sold using both chassis 1 and chassis 2. So, chassis 1 phones will become the low-end. The problem here is that chassis 2 is mid-range TODAY, and will be low-to-mid before chassis 3 ever sees the light of day. If anything, WP7 is drifting towards the low end, and not the high. Yes, you are correct in that Android covers a larger number of markets in this regard. WP7 is meant to strike somewhere between iOS and WP7. It does that, and it will get better. Ms just needs to do a better job of supporting other chipsets.

Going to repeat myself:

Originally Posted by saratoga

Even with the relaxed hardware requirements in Mango, its hard to imagine WP7 doing much in the low price point segment of the market. They've squarely targeted their minimum spec at the high end part of the market, particularly outside of the US, and Moore's law won't come to the rescue in time for 2012. Going to be hard to sell low end phones when the slowest CPU grade you support is faster then the current generation iPhone.

It seems to me you (and actually almost everyone in this thread) have a really skewed view of the smartphone hardware market if you think a 1GHz Snapdraggon (until a couple months ago the absolute fastest cell phone processor) is "mid-range". By this definition something like 90% of the market doesn't even meet the mid-range level.

Using a more reasonable definition, we might conclude that ARM11 processors at 65 nm are currently the low end, while cortex A8s are the mid range, with Snapdraggon around the high end. Yeah I guess theres a couple badly handicapped A9 parts out there (atrix, that LG phone) but they're not exactly blockbuster products given how hard it is to do an A9 at 45 nm. We might expect snapdraggon at 45 nm to drop to midrange sometime in mid to late 2012 when 28nm production really begins to ramp up, and A8s to lowend sometime around 22nm process node in about 2015 make them cost effective verses ARM11.

Originally Posted by medion

WP7 is meant to strike somewhere between iOS and WP7.

In terms of specs, its actually aimed well above iPhone 4, and probably a bit below the as yet unannounced iPhone 5. So I would say MS's original plan was to try and one up Apple by launching their own higher end platform that would eventually trickle down to the mid range in the 2012-2013 time frame. Basically catch Apple out of place in 2010. But Android happened first and now they're kind of stuck trying to figure out what to do with what they have.

[weedalin]

Originally Posted by medion

And yes, being another option is a positive in their favor. Now, if only MS would develop on current generation hardware. Mango's hardware will release around the same time as the iPhone 5, but have specs on par with the iPhone 4.

First: just being another option is never a positive in and of itself. If you're going to be another option, you have to make sense and appeal to consumers. And that's not necessarily the case all the time, that new options will automatically equal that consumers will see it as a bonus.

And saratoga, I'm confused with you using hardware specs as the sole determinant of high vs. mid vs. low end. Shouldn't price be the deciding factor?

[medion]

I kind of doubt thats a factor given that WP7 hasn't even been out for 2 years at this point, and most people don't buy their current phone in order to setup the purchase of their future phone

It is. If I'm buying an Android device, I have to take the UX into consideration for my next purchase. Will Netflix work? Will it have Sense? Will I become dependent on these features? With WP7, I know MS is being restrictive on the UX, meaning when it comes time to upgrade, I will get a similar experience across all phones.

Heh looking at that page theres only one WP7 device for Verizon and its a slate. Same for sprint. But yeah, I guess if you're that couple percent of smartphone users who happen to be on AT&T and not already using an iPhone, you're in luck because they have two form factors! Big slate and small slide out phone.

My point was that the phone was offered in more than just the iPhone shape. Your attempt to brush it off rather than directly address it is disappointing. I expected better from you.

Could you name some advantages that you think appeal to any significant fraction of people? Note that I'm not interested in what appeals to you or to I, but rather advantages that enable the WP7 platform to sell in larger volumes.

So far you've just suggested "makes it easier to buy your next phone" which is not really all that exciting an advantage. Actually I'm not even sure making your think about a replacement before you get out of the store is even an advantage

Right now, because they're behind both iOS and Android, MS has to play catch up on features. This means adding some unique features of their own. I'm not saying they've been successful, but I see where the attempt was made. They wanted to throw in Xbox Live integration to lure their Xbox users, built-in Office to lure business-focused consumers into forcing their IT departments to adopt it, and Zune integration to compete with iTunes (something Android lacks...thank god). They are aiming for the mass market, but their implementation right now is raw.

Yes the fact that internally every WP7 device is required to have virtually identical hardware that costs more to make then a lot of what Apple sells is a factor. It certainly makes it harder get carriers to push the hardware when it costs them quite a lot to do so.

I'm not so sure that the 1st and 2nd gen Snapdragons cost more than the A4 at this point. I would think they'd be in the same neighborhood, even with Apple's economies of scale. However, that's speculation on my part, because I really don't know.

It seems to me you (and actually almost everyone in this thread) have a really skewed view of the smartphone hardware market if you think a 1GHz Snapdraggon (until a couple months ago the absolute fastest cell phone processor) is "mid-range". By this definition something like 90% of the market doesn't even meet the mid-range level.

Actually, phones using these 2nd-gen Snapdragons are going on contract for $0-$99 these days (up to $149 direct from carriers). They're single core. They don't compete with the modern dual-core offerings.

Using a more reasonable definition, we might conclude that ARM11 processors at 65 nm are currently the low end, while cortex A8s are the mid range, with Snapdraggon around the high end. Yeah I guess theres a couple badly handicapped A9 parts out there (atrix, that LG phone) but they're not exactly blockbuster products given how hard it is to do an A9 at 45 nm. We might expect snapdraggon at 45 nm to drop to midrange sometime in mid to late 2012 when 28nm production really begins to ramp up, and A8s to lowend sometime around 22nm process node in about 2015 make them cost effective verses ARM11.

How is that more reasonable? I agree that ARM11 is low-end today. A8 is mid with SD at high? Sorry, but that's incorrect. A8 and Snapdragon are in the same ballpark. Snapdragon is only 5% faster in real world applications. Also, most A8s have superior GPUs compared to Snapdragon. A8 and Snapdragon is mid-range, while A9 and dual-core are the high end today. There is nothing "reasonable" about your definitions.

In terms of specs, its actually aimed well above iPhone 4, and probably a bit below the as yet unannounced iPhone 5. So I would say MS's original plan was to try and one up Apple by launching their own higher end platform that would eventually trickle down to the mid range in the 2012-2013 time frame. Basically catch Apple out of place in 2010. But Android happened first and now they're kind of stuck trying to figure out what to do with what they have.

Second gen single-core Snapdragon is not "well above" the iPhone 4. The CPU is about 5% faster than the A8 used in the iPhone 4, clock for clock. Yes, the iPhone 4 is underclocked, but not by much. At 850mhz, it's still within striking distance of the Snapdragon. The GPU used on the iPhone 4 is roughly 30-50% faster than the Adreno 205 on the 2nd gen Snapdragon. This puts the two chipsets overall in the same neighborhood. Neither is "well above" the other.